Below you’ll find a calculator for the FotL 2020:
You simply enter the number of Chocolate Strange Coins and Candy that you have (under Total Stock) and it calculates how many Epic Mystery + Mystery bags you can claim. Obviously it prioritizes Epics first and uses the remaining Candy for the blue bags. I’ve also included some suggestions that I feel would be beneficial.
TL;DR for the rest: A progressive loot payout system both in quantity and quality, will make FotL 2021 the most successful one to date imho.
Some thoughts on FotL 2020.
I understand that many veteran players feel that FotL isn’t really worth the grind, especially when you can afk the whole thing and just grab the chests at the end.
For me, having started D2 only recently it has been a pretty solid experience. As a new player my main aim after the vaulting announcement has been to finish anything that’s going away, from exotics & catalysts to triumphs and collections – which is why the DLC delay has benefited me personally.
For the FotL, I just play the game in order to finish what I need, wait until I’ve gone over 20 Ciphers and then run a few forests. After I get the weekly terrors on one character I switch to the next one and then the last one in order to make sure I get loot from the weekly terrors as well.
Also, no disrespect to any streamers and youtubers, but it’s literally their job to burn through content asap. Their experience is in no way indicative of the typical player.
Last, based on my personal numbers, I’d say the bag to claim ratio (Epic:Regular) is between 1:2 and 2:3 which is quite fair imho. Much better than the Legendary:Rare Engram World Drops. The Cipher drop rate is also quite good now as when it drops it is mostly 2 per, so I don’t see a reason to buff it further. In fact, a further buff will simply mean more forest runs for me which is something I do not currently need! Also, my Candy per Chocolate Strange Coin rate currently stands at 22:1 but again it all depends on what activities you are playing the most.
Using all materials is totally the way to go for all events btw. I know that by the end of the FotL I will have close to zero Ciphers, Coins and Candy but I’m also currently sitting on ca. 30.000 Altered Elements which I would gladly exchange for anything. An Umbral per 100 AE? per 500? Per 1000? Any exchange rate will do as this amount is the product of grind that should always be rewarded in some way.
Some suggestions for FotL 2021.
I believe that Bungie can create a more balanced experience and one that feels more rewarding relative to our grind (in terms of time and difficulty) by offering a progressive loot payout both in quantity and quality, specifically:
They should also make sure they drop exclusive loot (EXCL) with each and every FotL that will actually justify the grind to most players. Obviously this year changed their plans as it did to every one of us.
I can totally see players being unhappy next year if Bungie reverts to just spawning chests per Branch Clear. Players will simply say that in 2020 it was as easy as afk run and get all 5 chests!
To curb the previous point they can introduce a progressive loot system, such as to spawn 1 Chest (CH) every 2 Branches Cleared (BC) up until the 10th Branch and thereafter spawn one Chest every one Branch Cleared, like so:
BC • CH • EXCL (Exclusive Loot Drop Rate)
2 • 1 • 10%
4 • 2 • 20%
6 • 3 • 30%
8 • 4 • 40%
10 • 5 • 50%
11 • 6 • 66%
12 • 7 • 84%
13 • 8 • 100% EXCL or 10% Exotic
14 • 9 • 100% EXCL or 20% Exotic
15 • 10 • 100% EXCL or 30% Exotic (% Caps out after BC:15)
Btw, this doesn’t mean that if you reach Branch 8 all 4 Chests will have a 40% possibility to drop the exclusive loot. What it means is that Chest #1 has 10%, Chest #2 has 20%, Chest #3 has 30% and only the fourth and final Chest has a 40% possibility.
The percentages and branch numbers are really a rough guide as Bungie can balance everything by changing the FotL run time and/or difficulty, modifiers, drop rates, maximum branches possible to clear per run, etc. It’s the logic that I believe should be implemented.
But why not spice things up a bit and after the Exotic Cap (BC 15+) the exotic drop has a guaranteed roll of 66+ total stat? How about a few extra Enhancement Prisms or an Ascendant Shard instead? Sure enough, the grind will become more tedious after BC:10 but the value of the loot will more than justify the extra effort. I’d say that will make it the most successful FotL to date, on par with the Lake of Shadows Double Loot!