Thought I’d share some tips for cost-effective wishing (and maybe for avoiding certain wishes)Some are well known, others not so much, this is just a short guide, if you want to know more, please feel free to do your own research, and never buy wishes if you cannot afford to do so^^
tl;dr- if you have a lot of c6 characters, u get free pulls so SPEND LESS; never wish for 4 stars, weapon banner is a scam, mhy has an averaging system for rate-down items, always roll around pity, and never wish on standard banner.
1.) Wish discounts~ People always complain when 4-stars like Barbara and Noelle are rate-up for the nth time, you actually get a free wish anytime you get a dupe 4-star that you have c6’d. This isn’t revolutionary by any means but if you have 2-3 of the 4-stars at c6 on a character banner, which is likely even for some f2ps/dolphins that have played since day 1, you can actually expect to get anywhere from 5-20% of your wishes refunded on the way to soft pity, which doesnt sound super crazy, but that can save you a lot of money and primos and I encourage you to spend less on a banner ahead of time if this is the case for you.
2.) Building pity and/or wishing for 4 stars~ I see a lot of people that, in an attempt to get a particular 4 star on a banner, will spend primos all the way to the 70ish mark. While it is true that this pity will carry over, I think this is a horrible idea for several reasons. First, if you DO NOT WANT the 5 star, DO NOT WISH EVER ON THE BANNER, as getting a 5 star that you don’t want will either cost you real money or all of your saved primos, and totally reset your pity, making the NEXT character you want a lot harder to get or a lot more expensive. Secondly, the probability of you getting the 4 star you want can actually be a lot lower than you may think. In your first 10 pull, you have a 50/50 to get one of the rate-up characters, meaning that you only have a 16.7% chance (increased if you get more than 1 4 star, which does happen) to get the one you want. This only goes up to 33% if the last character you got wasn’t rate-up. And third, 4 stars will be rateup again. It doesnt take long for even the new ones like Rosaria and Yanfei to be put on another banner, + theyll technically be available on every banner for the future. It just isn’t ever worth rolling for 4 star characters.
3.) More reasons why the weapon banner is horrible~ if you want a 4 star weapon from the banner, the chance is actually only 10% on any given 4 star, since there are 5-rate up items. So for the same reasons listed above, do not roll for 4 star weapons either. As for 5 star weapons, the chance of getting one of the two weapons is 34.8%, unless you lose the 75/25, then its 50% on the next 5 star. It is never higher than that. I seriously do not recommend risking the money unless you want both rate-up weapons and are happing grabbing a random one and moving on. Weapon refinements are not nearly as good as character constellations and especially if you dont use the weapon on a main DPS, you will be wasting your money.
4.) Always plan for soft pity. The chances of getting a 5 star character before 75 wishes is like, 18%. So it will rarely happen. Don’t accidently overspend by thinking you’re were going to get lucky, then rage-pulling, etc. You wont get lucky, Plan for pity, every-time.
5.) Averaging system on NON rate-up items (particularly for standard banner)~ while there is a lot of math and data that supports this, I recommend looking into it yourself, as I will not be reposting someone elses work here; but the fast version is that you should receive roughly an equal amount of non-rateup weapons to characters. This is useful for standard banner, as if your past several 5 stars have been either a character or a weapon, you can expect the opposite to be your next 5 star. NOW, this is 100% speculation, but it is possible that this system also applies to specific units among the 5 stars, or rather to say that you should expect an even amount of jean/diluc/qiqi/mona/keqing on the same banner. This could also apply to weapon banners, but if it does, I’d say that it can take more than 3-4 5-stars to kick-in. This could explain why whales will get an even amount of each weapon after 1k wishes but most mid-range spenders will get 4 copies of the WGS before seeing any staff of homa. Also, mhy doesn’t tell us the explicit drop chance of each item, so it could be rigged way beyond that.
6.) Standard banner- It is never a good idea to roll for anything on the standard banner, as, especially if you’re a mid-high spender, you’ll get all the Standard Characters (Qiqi, Diluc, Jean, Mona, Keqing) over time anyway, and it won’t be worth your money. The probabilities for pulling any of those Standard Characters is the same on the character banner too, unless you lost the 5050 and are guaranteed the rate-up. As for weapons, I’d argue that most of the standard weapons, or at least a lot of them, aren’t that good, or well, not cost effective to try and roll for, especially if you don’t have the right character for it.
quick edit for standard banner: its a common misconception that everything on that banner (5 characters and 10 weapons) all have an equal chance of dropping. This isnt true. You have a 50% chance to get a character and a 50% chance to get a weapon. This means that weapons have a 5% probability and characters have a 10% probability (same as char banner.) Since specific weapons are half as likely to drop, I would not ever wish for those either t-t